Political Crisis in Madagascar, (update March 2010)

Background to the crisis
In March 2009 President Marc Ravalomanana was removed from office in a violent coup d’état and replaced by the then mayor of the capital, Andry Rajoelina.  Since his election as Mayor of Tana, Rajoelina had been a vocal opponent of Ravalomanana, attracting the support of many who had become disillusioned with a government that they felt had failed to address the needs of Madagascar’s poorest.  Whilst the overall economic policies of Ravalomanana’s government had been largely successful and had attracted large amounts of World Bank and other funding, the social policies lagged conspicuously behind.  Most people continued to live in grinding poverty.  Meanwhile the President himself benefited personally from Madagascar’s economic growth and many people became suspicious of overlapping public and private interests.
Massive demonstrations for and against the coup resulted in over 100 deaths.

What has happened since the coup?
The African Union and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) condemned the coup and have expelled Madagascar until democratic government is re-established.  The United Nations has also condemned the coup and has been doing its best to mediate, along with representatives of the African Union and the SADC.  The European Community, the International Monetary Fund, The USA and other big funders have either frozen or withdrawn all but essential humanitarian aid.  As aid accounted for up to 70% of Madagascar’s budget, this is a very serious blow.
      Four main parties are now involved, led by Rajoelina, Ravalomanana and two previous presidents, Ratsiraka and Zafy.  Since last June there have been many signed agreements concerning the setting up of a transitional administration to hold the reins of government until elections can be held.  The latest was signed in Addis Ababa in November 2009, but the parties have totally failed to agree on the sharing out of ministries and the present administration has reneged on the agreement not to prosecute opposition supporters and has generally refused to compromise in any way.
       All the parties are now divided, as is the army, and a solution seems farther off than ever.  Even the election is disputed, with one group wanting Assembly elections to come first and the other group insisting that there should be a presidential election first.

Effects on the economy
Growth was down to 0.6% in 2009 and no major new foreign investment was obtained that year.
       500,000 jobs have been lost since the start of the crisis last year.  The American Government suspended the AGOA agreements on January 1st which led to the closure of the garment factories and the loss of at least 150,000 jobs.  AGOA is the African Growth and Opportunity Act which allows African countries to export to the USA free of duty, but only on condition of good governance.
       Madagascar has started exporting tobacco again after a gap of 30 years.  British American tobacco is a main partner.
       Tourist numbers are creeping back up again slowly but the numbers of tourists in 2009 showed a drop of 56% on the figures for 2008.

Illegal export of precious hardwoods
The Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) and Global Witness estimates that 1,000 cubic metres of high value hardwoods are leaving Madagascar every month and that between 30 and 60,000 rosewood trees have already been felled, with probably five times as many other

Political unrest in 2009 left over 100 dead

trees felled in order to get the rosewoods out of the forest.  15,000 hectares (37,000acres) of forest is involved.  The vast majority of these trees are going to China to make luxury furniture, with smaller amounts going to the UK and the US for making musical instruments.
       The export of 300 containers of trees that had supposedly been felled by cyclones was officially allowed in September and there have been token seizures of “illegal” containers, but the figures in no way match the quantities estimated by the EIA and Global Witness to be leaving the country.  No illegal exporter has yet been condemned in the courts.

Effects on ordinary citizens
Many parents have moved their children from private to state schools as they can no longer afford school fees.  Numbers of children in state school classes have grown (100 or more children in a primary class is not uncommon) and there is serious overcrowding in many schools.  Absenteeism has risen to 17% which is double the numbers recorded a year ago.
       There is no such thing as unemployment pay so many families who would have considered themselves to be middle-class are suffering great distress.  For the very poor, who probably did not have any paid employment anyway, the main effect has been rising prices.  The price of fuel in particular has risen sharply and a litre of diesel in Madagascar now costs almost the same as it does in the UK.  Given that over 60% of the population lives on $1 a day or less, the effect of high fuel costs on most manufactured articles, and also on food that has to be transported, has been to push even more over the brink into grinding poverty.  In May 2009 one could hardly walk along the pavements in certain parts of the capital because of the crowds of people trying to sell everything and anything (even bits of broken mirror, or worn out shoes only fit for the dustbin) just in order to make a few pence.  Latest reports say that the authorities are cracking down on this and are confiscating the goods of anyone trying to sell in an unauthorised area.